This paper is a contribution to the EEA 2003 International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy. The focus of this paper is a reassessment of sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies in Ethiopia from a demo-economic, spatial and long term perspective.
The paper is divided into four parts. In part One, I show that the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP) suffers from a strong anti-urban bias and, from quotations of this document and of its earlier draft, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, I try to explain such bias by an analysis of the underlying paradigm.
In Part Two, the second I propose a demo-economic conceptual framework that, in my opinion, better reflects the situation and long term structural changes of Ethiopia during this period of demographic transition.
In Part Three, I use this framework to analyse past and present trends in Ethiopia. This includes a description of population dynamics over the past four decades and what I call the “demo-economic accounts” of Ethiopia relative to two average years: 1986-1988, the earliest period for which reliable data could be obtained, and 1996-1998, taken as the baseline year for the description of the current situation.
Whilst the results obtained from the demo-economic and spatial models are very crude, they nonetheless have the value of providing plausible orders of magnitude and reveal the inter-dependencies between population dynamics and economic dynamics and of helping to understand structural changes that the country has to face over the long term. This analysis shows that the slowdown of the urbanization process that started in the early 1970s creates a serious handicap for the acceleration of economic growth, and that the time has come to adopt a new development strategy that would be less focused on the supply of goods per se (agriculture and industry) and more in favor of the development of demand, trade and the revival of cities and towns and on urban-rural linkages. This Part Three ends with a critical analysis of existing databases and information systems, mainly national accounts and the 1995-96 and 1999-00 household surveys.
In Part Four, the same framework and models are used to sketch two demo-economic visions of Ethiopia in 2025, based on two different assumptions regarding the speed of urbanization. These long term visions help to assess the future prospects for poverty reduction in the agricultural sector and in the informal sector, as well as in urban areas and rural areas.
The final part Five is devoted to the presentation of a series of recommendations regarding the macro-strategy, primary sector policies and rural development, urban policies, decentralization and poverty reduction strategies.
Corporate Author: Ethiopian Economic Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute
Publisher: Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)
Primary Descriptors: rural development
Secondary Descriptor: Poverty; Sustainable Development
Geographic Descriptors: Ethiopia
Cataloge Date: 02/27/2013
Broad Subject heading: SOCIAL SECTOR ISSUES
Call Number: 330.963 PRO 2004
Serial Key Title: Proceedings of the First International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: International Conference
Content type: EEA Publication
Publication date: 2013-05-27 23:04:00
Forum or Discussion date: 2013-02-27 14:55:42
Place of publication: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: Book
Current frequency: Annualy
Author: Jean-Marie Cour