Vulnerability and shocks in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 199-2004.

Course ID
Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA)
Stefan Dercon

Improving our understanding of risk and vulnerability is an issue of increasing importance for Ethiopia as it is for much of Africa. A small, but growing, body of evidence, points to the role that risk, shocks and vulnerability in perpetuating poverty. Specifically, uninsured shocks – adverse events that are costly to individuals and households in terms of lost income, reduced consumption, or the sale or destruction of assets – are a cause of poverty. Further, the threat of such events may cause households and individuals to take actions that, while providing some additional protection against shocks, come at the cost of income gains. This paper examines who is vulnerable to different types of shocks in rural Ethiopia. Using the two most recent rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey, it will characterize the nature, frequency, and severity of climatic, economic, health and other shocks faced by rural Ethiopian households. It will assess the impact of these on levels and changes in measures of household well-being such as food consumption, total consumption, asset holdings and poverty status between 1999 and 2004. To do so, it will draw on conditional convergence models of growth, but applied here at a micro level. The modeling framework will take changes in these outcomes as a function of the lagged outcome and other covariates, a model of conditional convergence. In such models, endogeneity of these lagged outcomes is a real concern. Our data from earlier rounds of the ERHS as well as shocks information on the period prior to 1999 will provide us with instruments and we will test for the validity of these used standard techniques. Further, the paper will explore the differential effects of these initial conditions and shocks by sub-groups based on location, demographic, and wealth characteristics. Doing so will indicate whether the speed of convergence is affected by transitory shocks and will illustrate what types of households are most vulnerable to different types of shocks.

Corporate Author: Getnet Alemu & []. & Ethiopian Economic Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute
Publisher: Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)
Primary Descriptors: Shock; risk; vulnerability

Secondary Descriptor: Perpetual poverty,

Geographic Descriptors: Ethiopia, rural
Cataloge Date: 02/27/2013
Broad Subject heading: Growth and Development – poverty
Call Number: 330.963 PRO 2006
Serial Key Title: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: International Conference
Content type: EEA Publication
Volume: I
Publication date: 2013-05-27 23:06:00
Forum or Discussion date: 2013-02-27 15:02:02
Place of publication: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: Book
Current frequency: Annualy
Author: Stefan Dercon , John Hoddinott et al.

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